Biofuels & Hydrocarbons

A synthetic biology perspective

A subset of SynBio - biofuel and hydrocarbon related patents were identified during the hybrid topic modelling stage applied to SynBio EPO patents. The publication year trends of the subset are shown in figure .1, together with the biofuel subset related to waste processing and conversion. Publication trends discussed below are based on EP A1/A2 applications.

In figure .1, the peak publication figures for SynBio biofuels occurred in 2012 (686 publications), declining since and stabilising around 2017, with a recent 4.4% increase occurring in 2023 (405 publications) year-on-year. The subset of biofuel publications related to waste processing and conversion also peaked in 2012 (342 publications), recently increasing by 19.1% year-on-year in 2023, the highest figure since 2018. During the publication period 2004-2023, the waste conversion and processing subset accounted for 46% of the overall biofuel published applications, representing an important area of SynBio biofuel innovation.

The INPADOC legal status breakdown of the synthetic biology biofuel subset published during 2014-2023 is shown in figure .2.

The INPADOC based legal status stats in figure .2 revealed 34% of patents have lapsed and another third are granted, the data suggests the biofuel field is well established. However, there is further evidence of a slowdown in patenting activity with only 31% of patents currently pending.

Publication year subtrends

Whilst the overall synthetic biology biofuel publication year trendline has declined since peak activity in 2012, four further areas within the biofuel subset were analysed for evidence of growth areas, using specific classification codes as shown in figure .3.

Ethanol is the most widely used bioalcohol fuel, the publication trend in figure .3 is decreasing since a resurgence in 2019, with peak activity occurring in 2012 & 2014 (108 publications). There exists a similar trend for enzyme related patents within biofuels covering technologies such as hydrolysis of cellulose, microbial enzymes for breakdown of biomass, amongst others. Patent application publications related to genetic engineering have also declined since the 2011 peak. Patents within the key biofuel areas have experienced declining publication trends contributing to the lack of overall growth in recent times. However, analysis has revealed a recent 19% increase in biofuels from waste when comparing 2023 with 2022 figures. The slowdown for genetically modified organisms since the peak in 2011 is comparably less than the other fields analysed in figure .3.

The filing trends for biofuels and the biofuel subtrend areas are shown in figure .4. Here we explore the filing or application date of published applications, data is restricted to 2021 due to the potential for an 18 month delay between filing and publication.

The biofuels - waste processing & conversion filings increased by 26% and biofuels - genetically modified microorganisms increased by 16%, when contrasting filing totals for 2021 with 2020 figures. Whilst these specific subfields lag behind peak levels, there is recent evidence of increased patenting activity.

To further investigate SynBio biofuel technologies, the top 20 CPC classifications assigned to published patents were identified based on the total publications during 2014-2023 for a recent perspective. The class descriptors have been manually refined for readability, the counts are cumulative publications and publication year based.

Many of the top CPC classification areas are indicating decreasing levels of patenting activity and are aligned with the decreasing trendline for synthetic biology biofuel patents overall, as shown in figure .5. However, there appears to be a resurgence in 2023 for fuels from waste and distillation of cellulose based material.

Growing areas within SynBio - biofuels: compound annual growth rate (CAGR)

The SynBio biofuel related CPC classifications were further investigated to identify areas with a positive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to identify trending areas, shown in figure .6. The selected classes have a cumulative total above 50 publications during the publication period and are relevant for SynBio subject matter.

  • Biofuel subject matter
    The renewables (biological material), natural gas or methane/biomethane and hydrogen production subfields have shown positive CAGR values, although hydrogen production from non-carbon sources (6.9%) and especially natural gas or methane/biomethane (19.6%) are growing at much faster rates during 2014-2023. The findings are consistent with a recent International Energy Agency (IEA) report which projects fast growing development for biogas and biomethane, with combined market share within total modern bioenergy demand projected to grow from 5% currently to 12%-20% by 2040.

  • Biological related subject matter
    Solid growth for compounds derived from lignocellulosic materials at 7.5% CAGR. Unsurprisingly fungi related patents are growing at 7% CAGR, given yeast is a widely used chassis in SynBio and has an established biofuel production history. Patents classifed in the specific yeast classification code (C12N1/16) have grown at 2.8% CAGR. Bacterial isolates have posted a positive CAGR of 2.2% during the publication period, this is aligned with bacteria becoming an important area of research and development in the SynBio biofuel landscape.

  • Fuel related subject matter
    Adapted fuels for diesel engines (automobiles, stationary, marine) experienced reasonable growth at 4% CAGR, an interesting area of biofuels covering synthetic fuels, modified fuels and biodiesel, etc. A recent article highlighted global biodiesel production has hit record levels with production estimated to hit 76.3 million tons in 2024, a 7% increase year-on-year.

Growing areas within SynBio - biofuels: average growth rate

The average number of publications during two 5 year publication periods; 2014-18 & 2019-23 are contrasted in figure .7. CPC classification codes within the biofuel field, related to SynBio and with sufficient publication totals are analysed.

From a genetic engineering perspective, there is a small increase in the average number of publications for modified yeast, growing from 16 to 18 publications on average per year during 2019-23. Areas of relative growth include hydrogen production from non-carbon sources, gaseous fuels (natural or synthetic natural gas) and hydrocarbon feedstock using waste materials. All of which support the increasing trends identified. The average number of publications for fuel compositions from vegetable or animal oils has doubled during this period (10 publications on average per year) and the use of waste material as feedstock for hydrocarbons has increased from an average of 6 to 9 publications per year during 2019-23. Recent research has highlighted the feasibility of converting methane to isoprene via a methanotroph, for value added chemicals such as biofuels. Our analysis also uncovered consistent innovation levels (21 publications per year on average) for C12P5/007 - hydrocarbon preparations comprising isoprene units i.e terpenes. The analysis here is intended to provide a brief snapshot of specific class codes with increasing average growth rates.

SynBio biofuels: top 30 applicants

The total number of publications for the top 30 SynBio biofuel applicants are shown in figure .8, contrasting the overall publication period (2004-23) with a more recent perspective during 2014-2023.